Monday Morning PG: A good loss

While it was disappointing to see the lead slip away in the final 5+ minutes of Iowa State’s Saturday night showdown at Oklahoma, the Cyclones’ level of play in their Big 12 opener projects well to the future.

If ISU plays at the same level it did in Norman – considering it was a road game against an undefeated team that looks to be one of the very best in the country – it will win almost all of its remaining games. Certainly I-State will win all of its home games if it plays that well every night out. And it figures to win all of its road games except perhaps at Kansas.

Oklahoma played very well itself on Saturday night. It took a top shelf performance by OU to eventually overcome the Cyclones and take the win. And Iowa State was in it with a chance to win until Buddy Hield made two free throws following a missed open three by the Cyclones’ Monte Morris. All in the final ten seconds of play. I-State lost, but it started strong and kept the Sooners at bay for about 35 minutes before Oklahoma played just well enough to win it in the end.

So what does it mean for the upcoming games on Iowa State’s schedule? The Cyclones don’t travel to Lawrence until the last game of the regular season, on March 5. There is one non-conference game in there – a challenging Big 12/SEC Challenge road game at Texas A&M on January 30. If ISU played at the same level as the Oklahoma game on a game in and game out basis, it would probably win them all until Kansas in early March.

Now, is it going to do that? Unlikely. The human element to sports is that teams are made up of people and people don’t perform at a consistent level, every time, all the time. It’s what makes real sports different than video game sports. There is a range of performance that any team is capable of and the very best performance by the very worst team is one-point better than the very worst performance by the very best team. We wouldn’t watch otherwise.

The Cyclones also have health and depth issues to worry about over the long haul of a demanding Big 12 basketball season. They were effectively six-deep Saturday in Norman as Hallice Cooke only played three minutes off the bench in the first half. ISU is not immune to injury – it has already lost Naz Long for the season and who can forget the impact of Georges Niang’s foot injury two years ago in the NCAA tourney? This Iowa State team is one awkward step or landing away from jeopardy every second the ball is in play.

Cooke’s potential to contribute more than he has to this point needs to be realized for Iowa State to maximize its opportunity in 2016. The Cyclones have managed to win eleven games and suffer only two very close losses with his contribution so far, including pushing OU to the limit even with his brief in-and-out appearance in the first half. But he can do much more and needs to do much more, starting now.

On the flip side, Iowa State’s other transfer is contributing at an exceedingly high level and could find himself in the starting line-up soon. Deonte Burton only became eligible to play in December and his play has only continued to improve. Burton scored 19 points in 20 minutes off the bench at Oklahoma and he is shooting nearly 68 percent from the field in his first four games. That includes making 7-of-10 three-point attempts. Burton has also committed just two turnovers in 72 minutes of action, while recording five assists and three steals.

Does the Iowa State bench have anyone else the coaches can trust in Big 12 play? It appears not, but we don’t know for sure yet. The best possibility would seem to be that Simeon Carter eats a few minutes per game to spell the Cyclone bigs, but he didn’t play at Oklahoma and has only logged a total of 29 minutes while appearing in eight games so far. That looks like a hopeful reach at best at this point.

Home games with Texas Tech and Baylor are next up on the schedule for Iowa State. The Red Raiders are improved, but that is a game the Cyclones should win. The Bears don’t look to be as strong as in recent years – with only one high major win to date – but obviously the Baylor program is too good to ever take a win for granted. Then ISU goes to Texas and Kansas State and again, if it plays at the level it played at Oklahoma, it will be in good shape to win both of those roadies.

Then it’s home for an early rematch with Oklahoma, followed by a road game at TCU and then back home to host Kansas. Eight games into the conference season, the Cyclones will then take the detour trip to College Station for A&M in a made-for-TV game as part of a made-for-TV event – the Big 12/SEC Challenge.

Iowa State’s level of play in a loss at Oklahoma was much better than its play in some non-conference games that were wins. That was an Elite Eight/Final Four quality performance in Norman. Duplicating it often over the next two months is the task at hand for the Cyclones and it’s unlikely that it can do it 20+ times in a row between now and March.

But knowing that it can play at that level makes ISU a legit threat to win every game that remains on its schedule and if it does it in the vast majority of games left on the schedule, I-State will get the No. 1 or No. 2 NCAA tournament seed that everyone in Cyclone Country covets this season.